As the stock market has climbed higher, before Monday’s action, nothing has suggested that a top has yet been struck.
Ever since the correction at the end of 2018, my expectation was for this b-wave to rally back up to at least the 2,800 level. And the manner in which we have rallied still supports my expectation that this rally is a b-wave, which will turn us down strongly in the coming weeks.
But please recognize that risks have clearly risen. As I have been noting in my updates during the week, the daily moving average convergence divergence has risen to heights only seen in January 2018 and March 2000. Moreover, the daily MACD has turned negative, which means that any further price highs will likely be accompanied by a negative divergence in the daily MACD, strongly suggesting a top will likely be struck within the next few weeks.
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AviGilburt modernpicasso_ would love to see your ideas on $SPX. I have a 2820 exit on my shorts, and would look at re-entering if we do manage to squeak our way to the 2870 range.
AviGilburt And it hasn’t bottomed yet either!
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