said its purchasing managers’ index recorded an eleventh month of contraction. But the ISM index rose to 49, just below the above 50 threshold that signals expansion and higher than Wall Street forecast.That’s high enough to indicate that, at least according to the ISM.
On the other hand, the ISM gauges of costs went in the other direction. Its prices index showed prices decreasing, with the prices index falling 4.6 percentage points. Yet even ISM noted that “Gas prices are seen at a Mobil gas station in Los Angeles on September 28, 2023. California gas prices are nearing $7 per gallon in some locations as oil prices surge toward $100 a barrel.
That determination, by the National Bureau of Economic Research, typically isn’t made until several months after the recession actually began. But the NBER’s slump-dating committee identifies six indicators that weigh heavily in the decision, including measures of income, employment, consumer spending and factory output.
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