The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, has continued to fall, even as oversold conditions abound and increase. But “oversold does not mean buy,” and we do not have any confirmed buy signals yet.
There is support near 4200, because it was previously resistance . In addition, the still-rising 200-day Moving Average of SPX is near 4200 as well. Breadth has been quite negative, as one would imagine with SPX trading below the lower bands. Both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals. They are deeply oversold but will not generate buy signals until there are at least two and probably three days of positive breadth.The NYSE-based “New Highs vs. New Lows” indicator remains on a sell signal. New Lows have continued to dominate. One day this week there were 400 new lows on the NYSE alone.
Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives is of some concern. As long as the term structures of the VIX futures and of the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward, all is well. But the VIX futures term structure has flattened considerably and that could be a cause for concern. The front-month October VIX futures are trading 30 cents below November, and as long as that is the case, it’s still a bullish construct.
Long 8 CRON CRON, +0.55% Oct 2 calls: Option volume continues to be very strong. Hold without a stop. Long 3 ADM ADM, -0.53% Oct 76 puts: Hold this position as long as the weighted put-call ratio for ADM is on a sell signal.
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