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Earnings season begins with markets lower than three months ago, but expectations are higher

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Profit reports start this week in an odd position: estimates for the third and fourth quarter are slightly higher than when the third quarter began.

What's up with earnings? The market has gone lower, but earnings estimates have not. Friday's jobs report — and the subsequent 100-point rally in the S & P 500 — has some investors convinced that the soft landing is not dead: inflation is moderating yet job growth remains strong. That's a good setup for earnings season, which starts this week in an odd position: earnings estimates for the third and fourth quarter are slightly higher than when the third quarter began.

Is there another explanation? Nick Raich at Earnings Scout said it was possible the chaos in September came on so suddenly that corporations were unsure what, if anything, was going on with their businesses and elected to remain silent, which would be another case of "analysts with deer caught in the headlines." Early reporting companies didn't ring alarms Twenty companies have already reported third quarter earnings.

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