Treasury bonds are falling at the fastest pace in nearly two years this month, with yields surging to multi-decade highs amid renewed inflation concerns, a hawkish Fed, a resilient domestic economy and mountains of new supply.
Understanding that paradox gives you a much better insight into what's happening – and, perhaps more importantly, what isn't happening – in the world's biggest financial market. Beyond that, foreign buyers, often central banks, are merely exchanging dollars earned in trade with the US into Treasury bonds backed by those same dollars .
Those numbers, while wonky, go a long way towards debunking the notion that Treasury bond markets are some sort of"bubble" that's likely to pop if yields continue to rise. "We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor" Powell said, after weekly jobless claims data showed another surprising pullback in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. Labor Department figures published earlier this month also noted that 336,000 new jobs were added to the economy in September.
The CME Group's FedWatch suggests a 48.5% chance of a rate hike in January, with the odds of a move prior in December pegged at 37%. Traders, however, fully expect the Fed to hold rates steady at between 5.25% and 5.5% next month in Washington.
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