A closely watched gauge of expected U.S. stock-market volatility broke out to its highest reading since March on Friday. That’s still probably not enough to tempt contrarians to buy the dip in stocks as the S&P 500 index tests important support levels, according to a top Wall Street technical analyst.
“No, given the underlying breadth issues in the market, I don’t view it as a buy signal despite more often than not it has been after streaks like this,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, told MarketWatch Friday.The VIX hit an intraday peak just shy of 31 in March as fears over regional banking woes pressured markets. The VIX is an options-derived gauge of expected S&P 500 SPX volatility over the coming 30 days. It has a long-run average just shy of 20.
The VIX pulled back from its early peak on Friday, and was down 0.3 point at 21.09 in recent trade. The S&P 500 was off 0.5% near 4,254, on track for a weekly loss of 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA headed for a weekly decline of 1.1%. The S&P 500 was off its session low after testing support near its 200-day moving average around 4,233.
Treasurys rose Friday, pulling back yields, but have sold off sharply since the start of the war, failing to attract strong haven bids that often accompany periods of heightened geopolitical tensions. The 10-year Treasury note yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y on Thursday flirted with the psychologically important 5% level after hitting another round of 16-year highs this week.Crude futures CL.1, -1.03% BRN00, -0.
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