LONDON/SYDNEY, Oct 23 - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% and to its highest since 2007 on Monday, as a roaring U.S. economy led investors to expect interest rates to stay high for an extended period.
"5% from an economic perspective is just another number. But as far as investors are concerned it resonates," Daiwa Capital chief economist Chris Scicluna said. Indeed, futures imply around a 70% chance the Fed is done with tightening for this cycle and are flirting with the chance of rate cuts from May next year.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 was down 0.5%, also at seven-month lows, and rate-sensitive real estate stocks dropped to their lowest since 2012.The war in the Middle East was also high on investors' minds. Washington warned over the weekend of a significant risk to U.S. interests in the Middle East as ally Israel pounded Gaza and clashes on its border with Lebanon intensified.
This U.S. outperformance has underpinned the dollar, though the threat of Japanese intervention has capped it at around 150.00 yen, at least for the moment. The dollar was last trading at 149.93 yen , just below its recent peak of 150.16. The ECB meets later this week and is fully expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4%. Investors will be looking for any kind of signal from ECB President Christine Lagarde about how the rise in global bond yields might affect the outlook for euro zone monetary policy.
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