Every year around this time, as the cool winds begin to blow the red and yellow leaves from their lofty perches, nervous investors worry whether we will see a repeat of the stunning 20 percent stock market crash that the world witnessed onHistorically, October is actually not all that bad as its reputation would lead you to think. It’s true that 1929’sBut the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased an average of 0.5 percent in October since the index’s inception, according to Barron’s.
Somber-faced men stand outside the New York offices of a major mutual fund group watching an electronic display inside report the precipitous fall in the stock market on “Black Monday,” October 19, 1987, in New York. in real gross domestic product in 1987, around the same growth as the prior two years. The economy unexpectedly accelerated through the year, however, and ended the year with nearly 3.5 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.
Then, in March 2022, the Fed changed course, first tightening the money supply by increasing the federal-funds rate and then introducing quantitative tightening. Between July 2022 and August 2023, the M2 supply contracted by 3.9%, the most extreme contraction since 1933… In 1987 growth of M2 declined by almost half, from 9.7% year-on-year in January to 4.9% in September, while M3—no longer published by the Fed—slowed from 8.7% to 3.6% over the same period. A bond-market crunch and monetary squeeze together led to a sudden, drastic reassessment of equity-market valuations. The same could happen today, particularly since the current jump in bond yields and monetary squeeze are much more pronounced than in 1987..
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