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Wall Street’s ‘Hell Week’ with Fed, earnings, jobs data and Treasury funding on deck

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Wall Street will need to pass a series of stern tests this week if it wants to keep hopes of an end-of-year rally alive.

Wall Street faces one of the most difficult weeks of the year over the next five days, with investors tackling a host of corporate earnings, three major global central bank rate decisions and a key statement on near-term funding from the U.S. Treasury.

Few are expecting any change to the Fed's benchmark lending rate, which is currently pegged between 5.25% and 5.5%, but with markets now pricing-in more than 1.5% of interest rate cuts over the whole of 2024, focus is expected to fall firmly on Powell's near-term outlook for inflation and the odds of a final move higher into the start of the coming year.

Markets are looking for a headline refunding total of around $114 billion, up from the $103 billion announced in late August, in a move that would take the size of benchmark 10-years auctions to around $41 billion, with long-bond sales rising to $25 billion. With around half of the S&P 500 reporting so far, overall earnings are forecast to rise 4.3% from last year to a share-weighted $478.2 billion, according to LSEG data, before rising another 8.5% over the fourth quarter.

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