The T-note yield had climbed to 16-year highs just shy of 5% by late October, from less than 4% at the end of June.Wednesday and the Treasury detailed smaller-than-expected sales of long-term securities, setting off a rally in Treasury prices, which pushed yields — which move inversely — lower.
Essentially, the Treasury announced plans to sell a more modest amount of long-term debt than the market seemed to expect .The basic logic of markets is, if a product is in lower supply, and demand stays more or less the same, prices should rise. That's what happened in the Treasury bond market, as the announcement of lower-than-expected supplies of long-term bonds pushed Treasury prices up, and yields lower.the Federal Reserve at 2pm announced that it would leave short-term rates alone, instead of hiking again. Half an hour later Fed chair Jerome Powell's news conference reinforced the idea that the already implemented rate hikes are still working their way through the economy, so the central bank is in no rush to hike further.
In other words, although rate cuts aren't on the table, it doesn't seem like many more hikes will be needed to slow down the economy, either."Our read is that the Fed is in the process of transitioning into the next logical stage of the cycle – i.e. leaning on the higher-for-longer messaging to avoid being pressured to cut rates before the Committee deems it prudent," wrote analysts with BMO Capital Markets.
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