Wall Street faces the start of a key three-day stretch for the bond market Tuesday as the Treasury begins its run of beefed-up benchmark auctions that could challenge the recent rate-sensitive rally for stocks.
Last week, the Treasury cut its current quarter borrowing forecast to by $76 billion, to $776 billion, citing better-than-expected tax receipts from the resilient domestic economy, some of which were deferred as part of disaster relief efforts in California. " seems to believe that the central bank will be able to fight inflation without slowing down the labor market significantly," she added."However, that comes with the notion that tighter financial conditions must be persistent ... that keeps the door open to further rate hikes."
There are signs of a broader economic slowdown, as well, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool suggesting a current quarter growth rate of just 1.2%, well south of the 4.9% recorded over the three months ending in September, while private-sector activity surveys, and muted near-term forecasts from the world's biggest tech companies, continue to suggest rough seas ahead.
Stocks, in concert, had their best week of the year, with the S&P 500 rising 5.825% and the rate-sensitive Nasdaq surging 6.6%.This week, however, an under-reported nugget in the Fed's third quarter Senior Loan Officers' Survey is nudging yields higher. The report noted that, even with the recent surge in market rates, some banks are actually easing lending conditions, providing fresh credit lines to an already solid economy.
Foreign buyers of the $51 billion 2-year note auction in late October, meanwhile, purchased 62% of the $51 billion sale, down from the 65% figure reported in September and below the near-term average of around 65.5%.
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