Australian Financial Review Business Summit: Why inflation and rates are set to ‘rebound higher’

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Expect interest rates to fall, but don’t expect them to stay there. That’s the big picture view of macro experts at the AFR Business Summit.

Already a subscriber?Interest rates may be heading lower as inflationary pressures sparked by the pandemic recede, but they are unlikely to stay there as major geopolitical and macroeconomic forces will push them higher.

“Three is the new two in this environment” she said referring to annual inflation rates that central banks will be able to achieve over the long run.“After inflation gets to target, it could cause a roller coaster rebound back higher than what markets are currently expecting.”Financial Reviewthat central banks would cut rates aggressively once they neared their inflation targets.

“The interest-rate dynamic is going to shift, which is another reason that we do think that rates are staying higher for longer.” United States Studies Centre chief executive Michael Green told the Summit that a tectonic shift was underway in geopolitics that would be “generational, intergenerational and state-led”.Mr Green said states “are making decisions to pursue relative gains over their competitors rather than profitability, prosperity and profit”.would cost the global economy around $US10 trillion .

 

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