U.S. stocks are holding steady despite what many see as a reliable recession indicator, and Wall Street experts are similarly unfazed — at least for now.
To many, an inverted yield curve signals an oncoming recession. But analysts and economists are largely split — and mostly underwhelmed — by the latest test of the market's resilience. "The importance of the yield curve is how long are we going to be inverted for? [...] The longer you have this situation, the higher the risk goes. I think if we can go a few days inverted and then start to steepen again, I don't think the concerns are as worrisome. ... Our big area of focus is the semiconductors, and they've been a great leadership [group] for the market overall over the last six years. Every major sell-off in the stock market has been preceded by underperformance.
"When something happens for the first time since 2007, people pay attention, and that's what happened on Friday when you got the inversion. However, when you look at the economy ... and also when you look at the determinants of the yield curve shape and move, this is not signaling recession.
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Let’s add to the fact that -The GAO pointed to an IRS estimate that about 4.6 million fewer filers would receive refunds this tax filing season. Another 4.6 million filers were likely to owe money who had not had that experience in the past.
Yeah we don't see it, either
They must be blind to all the recession warning signs then
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