The CPI number has been hotter than analysts’ median estimates, and the CPI swap pricing for a few months now. Going back to July, the CPI report has come in below CPI swap pricing only once in November.
However, let’s face facts. Given the latest round of job data and expectations based on CPI swap pricing with the y/y rate expected to remain around 3.2% for the next few months, it would make sense for more rate cuts to be removed from market pricing, resulting in a higher 2-year rate.Treasury bill spot rate minus the 3-month Treasury Bill 18-month forward rate rise to -91 basis points. That is the highest it has been since late November.
Wider spreads are likely to lead to wider spreads on High-yield debt as well, and that has already started to happen with the CDX high-yield index rising to 340 this past week. It wasn’t in celebration of a strong job number; it was merely due to the reset in volatility, in the same manner that we saw after the CPI report on March 11 and Nvidia’s results on February 21.. What was also noticeable on Friday was that the Nasdaq tried for a third day in a row to get above the 10-day exponential moving average and failed, closing below it for the fourth day in a row.
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