The report suggests that the soft-landing scenario—solid growth and steadily falling inflation—is dead. We’re now looking at ain the first quarter. That’s a big slowdown from the 3.4 percent pace in the fourth quarter of last year and a reminder that the pace of economic growth can turn suddenly and unexpectedly.—with many on Wall Street wondering if that was going to turn out to be too low. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow ended last week at 2.9 percent and registered 2.
Export growth was split evenly between goods—which rose 0.9 percent—and services—up 1.0 percent. It’s very likely thatagainst global currencies was part of the problem here, putting U.S. goods and services out of reach for foreign consumers. Global geopolitical turmoil may also have been a drag on export demand. Finally, the Biden administration’sof the U.S. are likely starting to bite—and will weigh on growth for years to come unless November brings a change in control of the executive branch.
, indicating a high level of domestic demand. Final sales to private domestic purchasers—the best proxy for how the real economy is fairing—grew at a robust 3.1 percent pace. That’s just below the 3.4 percent pace in the prior quarter and above the 3.0 percent growth in the third quarter of last year.
Spending on services rose by the most since the third quarter of 2021, boosted by health care and financial services . This was theFixed investment jumped 5.2 percent, good enough to add nine-tenths of a percentage point to overall growth. This was driven by a 13.9 percent. Housing investment has now expanded for three straight quarters, a sign of robust demand but also limited supply in the existing house market.
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