) looking out 3 – 5 years is that revenue growth is expected to slow, i.e. to never return to the +20% pace the e-commerce giant generated from 2002 to 2021, when annual revenue growth averaged 29% per year, to today’s current expected revenue growth for the next 3 years of 10% – 12%.
AWS operating margin, the last 2 quarters of ’23 was 30.3% and 29.6% and is returning to normal, i.e., after three consecutive quarters of yoy operating margin declines. The difficulty for Amazon going forward will be to generate healthy revenue growth for a company with a $2 billion market cap, and that is expected to generate $641 billion in revenue in 2024.If readers ever want a “big picture” take on e-commerce vs brick-and-mortar market share in terms of US retail sales, Bespoke puts out this graph with comments after every monthly retail sales report.
Other important valuation metrics are a 3x price-to-sales valuation and a 21x and 64x price-to-cash-flow and price-to-free-cash-flow valuation.
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