‘Fed Put’ Back on the Table: What That Means for the Market

a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program;: for the first time in a while the reflation thesis was challenged by a weaker suite of data clashing versus the very optimistic 5% economist expectation for 2024 US nominal GDP growth;

Summing up Treasuries and other bonds, the Fed was allowing $95 billion of bonds to roll-over its balance sheet each month.Mortgage-Backed Securities That elsewhere is due to Money Market Funds draining down the Reverse Repo Facility to buy the avalanche of T-Bills issued by the US government. Will they also replicate such a proactively dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts and start their cutting cycle in summer despite the inflation comeback we witnessed in the first quarter?The Fed would achieve that by signaling a very dovishly skewed Forward Guidance: ready to proactively ease at the first signs of weakness, while not tightening if growth or inflation pick up.

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