Consensonomics gets an 'F' In the last two months of 2023, the market added an additional percentage point of rate cuts to its year-end 2024 expectation, taking the total quantity of quarter-point rate cuts priced in to seven. Looking back, most consensus forecasters pointed to Jerome Powell's "dovish pivot" and the new FOMC December dot plot calling for one additional 2024 cut as the primary drivers for this heightened exuberance on rates.
And while I'm certainly no fan of the regulatory side of Yellenomics/Bideconomics, blaming everything that goes wrong in the markets on fiscal excess is getting so very tiring. This year the rate markets have come back to a more sensible reality after flirting with the la-la land of 7 cuts. And all the while, the more sensible equity markets have paid only fleeting attention to their rate brother's whining.