For all the relief in emerging markets that the Federal Reserve doesn’t expect to raise interest rates anytime soon and that commodity prices are hot again, there are still the troublesome twosome: The Turkish lira and Argentine peso.
Ankara’s economic reform plans — announced on Wednesday — failed to impress markets and investor meetings with Finance Minister Berat Albayrak at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings did little to change that. Ankara’s row with Washington over plans to buy a Russian missile defense system and declines in its FX reserves have only added to the concern of investors still smarting from last month’s pre-election move to temporarily freeze the London lira market.
So it’s India that investors should be sweating over. Even if the February tensions with neighbor Pakistan have given Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his coalition an edge, the risks are that he will lose his majority and may cobble together a new partnership that could slow down reforms.It’s the start truncated trading - the first of four consecutive shortened trading weeks, as a series of public holidays in Europe begins with Easter.
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