While Wall Street has finally come around to the view that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, it may still be underestimating justWall Street Journal
three had 100 basis points of cuts, six forecast 125 basis points, one saw 175 basis points of cuts coming, and UBS was the outlier with 250 basis points of cuts. Obviously, pushing out the date of the first cut means pushing out the total size of cuts likely this year. Seven firms are projecting just 25 basis points of cuts and seven more see 50 basis points of cuts. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley agree that the Fed will cut 75 basis points., which would be a quarter point cut every meeting starting in July. MUFG has 125 basis points of cuts. And, of course, the three firms who see the Fed waiting until next year see zero basis points of cuts.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks in Washington, DC, on May 15, 2024. . Absent an unforeseen economic emergency, there’s little good that could be accomplished by cutting in September that could not also be accomplished by a cut in December. And with Biden so vocally pushing for a Fed cut, a cut just prior to the election would inevitably have the appearance of inappropriate political favoritism.
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