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Cramer: Why investors must time the big funds, not the business cycle, to win in this market

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'If you wait for a particular cycle to turn, you'll be too late — by the time there's clear evidence, you've already missed the move,' Cramer said.

The key to playing stocks in relation to the business cycle is to figure out when the institutional investors will be triggered to buy and sell their holdings, Jim Cramer says.

"You're not betting on when the business will bounce back, you're betting on how patient the other money managers are going to be," he says. There's a split between the actual turn in a business cycle and its perception, Cramer said. The art of timing the cycle is subjective, and too much optimism can hurt a portfolio if the cycle doesn't materialize as predicted, he added.

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