On November 4, 2018, the new sanctions took effect, with eight countries that are biggest importers of Iran’s oil: China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey exempted from sanctions, to find new markets for crude oil in six months. Three countries: Greece, Italy and Taiwan acceded to the American demands to end the purchases of Iranian oil.
To the Iranians, it is no more a sucker punch as it was expected. Iran’s petroleum export for 2018 was about US$52.7 billion translating to 47.6 percent of Iranian revenue. Analysts say the American tough stance would affect the gross national product of Iran, whose economy is already under intense pressure.
What is not clear is whether the United States would be able to enforce the sanctions. The threat of sanctions last year was greeted with waivers to stabilize the market as Trump appealed to OPEC on production cuts. Reuters reports that under US sanctions law, importers of Iranian oil including China, India and Turkey, could be allowed a wind-down period before getting to zero oil purchases, including a short-term waiver.
The US decision affects Japan and South Korea which are heavily dependent on foreign oil. India, a main importer is feeling the heat, coupled with American pressure to cut oil purchases from Venezuela. Turkey has argued that as a neighbor, it cannot cut ties with Iran, as it badly needs the oil.Commentators believe that the policy and politics of the Trump oil equation, has increased in complexity. Pompeo said the Trump administration had been trying to find alternatives for close allies.
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