The U.S. job market isn’t sizzling hot anymore. Companies aren’t hiring the way they were a year or two ago. But they aren’t slashing jobs either, and American workers continue to enjoy an unusual degree of job security.
From January through June this year, the economy has generated a solid average of 222,000 new jobs a month, down from an average 251,000 last year, 377,000 in 2022 and a record 604,000 in 2021 when the economy bounded back from COVID-19 lockdowns.Sign up for our free Olympics Headlines newsletter. What's more, the unemployment rate has risen for the past three months. If it inches up unexpectedly in July — to 4.2% instead of remaining at 4.1% as forecast — it will cross a tripwire that historically has signaled an economy in recession., named for the former Fed economist who came up with it: Claudia Sahm. She found that a recession is almost always already underway if the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point from its low of the past year. It’s been triggered in every U.
“Labor demand is slowing,’’ said Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, “but companies are not laying off workers in large numbers, which reduces the odds of a negative feedback loop of rising unemployment leading to income loss, reduction in spending, and more layoffs.’’ Nonetheless, Sahm remains concerned about the hiring slowdown, noting that a deteriorating job market can feed on itself.
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