LONDON/SYDNEY, Aug 5 - Wall Street looked to follow a global stock rout with Japanese shares at one point exceeding their 1987"Black Monday" loss, as fears of a U.S. recession sent investors fleeing from risk while wagering that rate cuts would be needed to rescue growth.
"There are lots of other big moves in markets but it's safe to say they wouldn't have been nearly as big if it wasn't August," said Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research, pointing to how thinly-traded summer markets can be roiled more easily.
"Signs of emerging weakness in the U.S. economy are evident, with negative indicators from hiring, retail sales, and PMI reports," said Bruno Schneller, managing partner at Erlen Capital Management. "Now that the Fed looks to be materially behind the curve, we expect a 50 bp cut at the September meeting, followed by another 50 bp cut in November," said economist Michael Feroli. Investors will get a read on employment in the service sector from the ISM non-manufacturing survey later on Monday and analysts are expecting a rebound to 51.0 after June's unexpected slide to 48.8.
The dollar fell by as much as 3.28% against the Japanese yen to 141.675 but had recovered to 142.675 by 1142 GMT, while the euro dived 2.3% to 156.20 yen . The single currency rose against the dollar to $1.0952 . "If the recession narrative takes hold in earnest, we would expect that to change, and the dollar to rebound as safe-haven demand becomes the dominant driver in currency markets."
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