A currency trader works near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index , left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the KEB Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Aug. 5, 2024. The S&P 500 was down by 3.1% in late trading and on track for its worst drop since 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was reeling by 1,009 points, or 2.
Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle sees a higher chance of a recession within the next 12 months following Friday’s jobs report. But he still sees only a 25% probability of that, up from 15%, in part “because the data look fine overall” and he does not “see major financial imbalances.” The only way for stocks to look less expensive is either for prices to fall or for their profits to strengthen. Hope is still high for the latter, with growth for S&P 500 profits this past quarter looking to be the strongest since 2021.. Such a move helps boost the value of the Japanese yen, but it could also force traders to scramble out of deals where they borrowed money for virtually no cost in Japan and invested it elsewhere around the world.
Making things worse for Wall Street, Big Tech stocks also tumbled as the market’s most popular trade for much of this year continued to unravel. Apple, Nvidia and a handful of other Big Tech stocks known as the “” had propelled the S&P 500 to records this year, even as high interest rates weighed down much of the rest of the stock market.
Wall Street has been concerned about how policies coming out of November could impact markets, but the sharp swings for stock prices could affect the election itself.
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