The gold market has been experiencing a turbulent period in August, with prices declining for the fourth consecutive trading session. This downward trend began on August 1, when the December gold contract decline by the fractional amount of $2.50, after opening at $2,493.40. As of the latest report, the most active December contract has fallen to $2,432.10, representing a significant drop of $20. Gold is currently trading in Australia down an additional -$1.50, taking December gold to $2429.
U.S. Treasury yields have also played a role in gold's recent performance. The two-year note yield rose by 7.9 basis points to 4.016%, while the 10-year Treasury note yield increased by 11 basis points to 3.908%. These changes in bond yields, coupled with a slight strengthening of the U.S. dollar index , have contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, which analyzes interest rate futures to predict monetary policy changes, there is now a 100% certainty of a rate cut next month. The tool suggests a 71.5% chance of a 0.5% cut and a 28.5% probability of a more modest 0.25% reduction. The gold market's recent volatility serves as a reminder of the metal's sensitivity to economic conditions and policy shifts. As the September FOMC meeting approaches, market participants will be closely monitoring further economic data and policy signals to gauge the future direction of gold prices and the broader financial markets.
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