Navigating sell-offs and a volatile market: Catalysts

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Market Volatility ニュース

Jobless Claims,Madison Mills,Jason Pride

On today's episode of Catalysts, Co-hosts Seana Smith and Madison Mills provide key insight into the market volatility and how investors can best navigate it...

,"We had a little bit of an economic surprise that people are still, I think, deciphering that employment report. I mean, even today with the jobless claims numbers, people are kind of looking back and questioning, well, how do you reconcile these two?" Pride explains.Nvidia to"remain dominate in a market that is growing very, very fast."

And as earning season continues, barclays changing its rating on the retail sector will tell you which stocks, one analyst sees as buying opportunities within the space. And you can see that yellow bar screen here is right where we've been the past couple of days and I was a little bit surprised frankly that our, our sell off that we've seen over the past five days here was not less of a big deal in comparison with history.

Uh and those things together kind of like other previous big really rapid declines, just kind of happened at the same time and kicked off a series of dislocations in the market that probably will eventually turn out to be when we look back is temporary in nature. Now, get to your question of, of what does that mean on a go forward basis, we're probably still going to be picking through this economic information.

I think it just, it takes some time for us to see enough economic data, for people to get comfortable with the fact that OK, this isn't a recessionary environment yet. Uh Every client or every investor should have an idea of like, what's my normal, what is my kind of neutral allocation on equities and bonds on different portions of the market?Don't chase, meaning when the market's up a lot, don't chase the market up a lot.Use the volatility to rebalance your portfolio.It doesn't have to be like every single day that the market's down but uses as opportunities to rebound, get yourself on target with your investment approaches.

And this comes at a time when it seems like many investors are still waiting on the sidelines when it comes to a video.So yes, I would say that first of all, since the peak of June, Nvidia's stock has pulled back by nearly 30%.And the reality is that, you know, even despite the concerns uh the recent concerns on on the company, you know, the Blackwell uh delay concerns around macro, we still expect NVIDIA to dominate the data center XPU market.

We see little downside to valuation, even the stock is now trading below the, the 12 multiple of the 2018, 2019 down cycle.I want to talk about what we've heard from some of the videos biggest customers, Shana was mentioning, you've got Microsoft meta alphabet and Amazon contributing about 40% of the videos overall revenue.

But the reality is that even if we conserve model a significant slowdown in investments in 2026 2027 by these giants that still makes room for a good upside for all the names we cover exposed to data center A I spending. Um And so the the integration of these components into the substrate has resulted in issues like thermal mismatch and warpage.Um and it was market very, very rapidly by NVIDIA, you know, NVIDIA is accelerating its product cadence.But that being said, we still expect NVIDIA and to bring Blackwell to market with acceptable yield and volume in 2025.They can extend the life of hoer, they can release a single die black whale chip.

The, the first is that there's not a lot of transparency when it comes to the software companies and how much revenue they're seeing from A I if any yet. And as new models come out and new features come out, they have to figure out how those fit into their own businesses.And I think honestly that the final issue is that when it comes to hardware versus software, there's a fundamental difference, the software needs the hardware to work.So you're going to see a lot of the hardware money come in first.

Um It's kind of amazing when you kind of when you look at the numbers that Eli Lilly is already generating in just the second full quarter of Z bound being on the market, it's already annually, basically $5 billion. Um We've seen so many clinical studies not only showing how profound the weight loss is for these drugs, but that they are kind of preventative medicines in some respect with cardiovascular benefits, with stroke benefit heart failure, um kidney failure, all these other medical conditions that the drug is um very active in reducing.Once patients have already been diagnosed with something in this case, they're, they're preventative in many ways.

 

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