, investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will implement at least a 25-basis point rate cut in September. The Jackson Hole Symposium could finally offer a clear signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding this anticipated rate cut.
In the UK, a divided Bank of England has left traders uncertain about the central bank's next steps, particularly with services inflation still posing a challenge. However, the recent recovery in GBP/USD suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.As we look ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet, with global PMIs on Thursday being the only major event before thehad given up those gains.
The Jackson Hole Symposium will be the main event on Friday, attracting central bankers, finance ministers, and market participants from around the world. This event has historically been a platform for the Fed to signal major policy shifts. However, should the Fed provide a hawkish message at Jackson Hole, the technical outlook could shift. For me, it would take a break below July’s low of 1.2615 to drop my bullish bias on this pair. Key support levels to watch include the 1.2850 area, followed by longer-term support in the 1.2700 – 1.2750 range, which could provide a bounce on any short-term weakness.