This may not sound like a big deal, but it was the first LME warranting of the battery metal since February 2022.
This is good news for the LME, but bad news for the cobalt market. The appearance of so much metal at the dormant market of last resort is a sign of chronic global supply glut.The super-charged rally of 2017-2018, when LME three-month cobalt peaked above $95,000 per ton, generated an overwhelming supply surge that sent the market tumbling all the way back to $26,000 in 2019.
Cobalt is mined as a byproduct of copper and nickel respectively in those two countries, meaning the sensitivity to low prices is limited. Production jumped 86% to 17,000 tons last year, meaning the country now accounts for 7% of global mined cobalt output, according to the Cobalt Institute. True, cobalt has taken a knock from strong growth in lithium-iron-phosphate battery chemistry, but usage is still expanding at a fast rate.
Given the scale of the current supply-demand mismatch, the expectation is for more of the same in the coming years. Macquarie Bank analysts are forecasting surplus to persist until 2027.China’s state reserves manager bought 8,700 tons of cobalt last year and is planning to buy another 15,000 tons this year.
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