Some companies have delivered an exponential growth in their earnings per share over the past decade. A curve-fitting measure identifies them.on a growth stock? How big a premium do you have to pay to get that stock? How reliable is the earnings growth?
With few exceptions, you have to pay a steep price to get in on this kind of growth. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 index trades at 26 times its forecast earnings. However, those index earnings incorporate all the negative numbers for money losers. Exclude them and the market’s forward multiple is more like 20.
But what do you do with a loss year? Tesla went from a loss of 32 cents a share five years ago to a gain of 21 cents the next year. No percentage can be assigned to this improvement. The 10 out of 12 minimum eliminates 39% of the stock market. For each of the remaining 1,137 names, the analysis presented here measures the steepness of the exponential curve that best fits a company’s EPS record. The predictability grades are based on the goodness of fit, with penalties for missing years. Those grades are awarded on the curve, with the top quartile scored “Very High” or “High” in predictability and the bottom quartile “Low” or “Very Low.
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