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Stocks Finish Flat After Big Opening Rally, Fed Meeting Looms

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Stocks,Market,Volatility

The stock market ended yesterday's session unchanged after a strong initial surge that faded in the afternoon. Analysts predict implied volatility will likely increase today, potentially leading to lower opening levels ahead of the FOMC meeting. The impact on stocks after the meeting hinges entirely on the Fed's statement.

Stocks finished yesterday's session flat after a big opening move, with the gains vanishing in the afternoon.Of course, where that rally starts, where it goes, and how long it lasts is an entirely separate question. My guess is that implied volatility will likely keep rising this morning, which means stocks may very well start from a lower level heading into the FOMC meeting.

Yesterday, we saw how much the TGA rose yesterday, which was pretty much as expected. This brought reserve balances down, and I’m estimating they are probably around $3.25 trillion right now. That doesn’t necessarily mean the SPX has to fall, but history suggests it does due to the draining of the reserve balance.Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 100 hit resistance at the trendline and attempted to break out but couldn’t. The Nasdaq 100 is the index that matters because it’s been the leader, unlike the S&P 500 or the Dow, and it’s still 5.5% off its highs.

 

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