The September jobs report was a jolt to the system, upending expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
for cutting rates again at the November 7 meeting,” Joe Lavorgna of SMBC Nikko Securities said in a recent note.The market still thinks the Fed will cut, but it has. At the end of September, the market was pricing in even chances of a half-point cut and a quarter-point cut. As of Tuesday, the odds of a larger cut are zero. The odds of no cut at all have crept up to around 13 percent.
“Even if the Fed concludes with the benefit of hindsight that it didn’t need to cut by 50bp in September, we doubt it will be deterred from cutting in November on strong labor data alone,” Bhave notes.By moving so boldly and so early, the Fed has put itself in a bind.Finally, the Fed’s decision to cut before the election may put pressure on the Fed to cut after the election, especially if Donald Trump wins.
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