The Coinbase logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen with stock market percentages in the background.The stock lost 11%, putting it on pace for its biggest drop since June 2023, when it fell 12.1%. A broader market decline also pressured Coinbase., which is often a big influence on the price of Coinbase, slid 2% after hovering below its all-time high this week.
"There is a lot that's going to happen here over the next couple months – the U.S. election ramifications of that – that will be become the much bigger story for the space, not to mention the recent appreciation in crypto prices and volume could put upward pressure on fourth-quarter revenue if the trend continues over the next two months," said Ryan, who has an outperform rating on Coinbase.
"Near-term, people will have to recalibrate a bit in their models for the blended take rate assumption," or the percentage of revenue Coinbase keeps from a transaction, he said. "Nothing structural occurred here, but as stablecoin trading volume has increased, that comes at a lower spread, and the fourth-quarter implied revenue guide was a bit soft."
Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer with a buy rating on Coinbase, put Thursday's drop on the warning that subdued volume could persist going forward and that lower U.S. interest rates could cut into the growth of Coinbase's stablecoin revenue.How the Fed's rate cutting cycle could hit crypto's 'systemically important' stablecoin sector