JPMorgan's trading desk has some ideas on how much the stock market might move following Friday's all-important job report. Friday's data on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages are the last major economic release before next week's presidential election and Federal Reserve policy meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect jobs to have grown by 100,000 jobs in October and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.
If there's no wage increases, it can signal steady or higher job growth without inflation. The S & P 500 should add between 0.5% and 0.75%. Between 80,000 and 120,000 jobs added; 40% chance: This is the most likely scenario and one that should keep the outlook for growth unchanged. It should also keep expectations in tact for GDP growth and another 50 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024. The S & P 500 should finish the day somewhere between flat and up 0.5%.