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What one stock market gauge is predicting about the presidential race

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Kamala Harris ニュース

Donald Trump

One market strategist notes a pattern based on whether the S&P 500 rises or falls between the end of July and Halloween.

If history is any guide, one stock market gauge suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. In all but two elections since 1944, the party in the White House has retained power when the U.S.

'You can say there is sort of an overlap — the market usually goes up on an annual basis and voters tend to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, so it makes sense if the market goes up most of the time and the incumbent gets re-elected most of the time,' Stovall told CBS MoneyWatch.Even more reliable are periods when the stock market falls during the period from July 31 to October 31, in which case the incumbent has been replaced 89% of the time.

 

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