to prop open a window in my living room. Exposed to the elements for an entire summer, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s book became a faded, crumpled, silty wreck – and a convenient metaphor for how most predictions look after being exposed to the real world.
“The new wild card in this analysis is clearly the incoming Trump Administration – and here there is much to unpack,” the outlook report from CIBC Capital Markets says. While markets have soared since Mr. Trump’s re-election, the president-elect’s return “could be a double-edged sword for investors,” the outlook from AGF Investments Inc. says.
In addition to the unpredictability of the incoming U.S. administration, the BlackRock Investment Institute makes the case that artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, aging populations and the energy transition are reshaping the global economy “and leading to a wide array of potential outcomes.”