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Is the US Market Broken? Tech Boom and Market Volatility

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Business ニュース

Nasdaq,Dow,S&P 500

Analysis of recent market trends, including record highs in the Nasdaq, the Dow's losing streak, and the S&P 500's performance. The text discusses potential market bubbles, the attractiveness of US tech stocks, and the author's outlook on long-term investments.

The Nasdaq is hitting all-time highs, while the Dow is breaking an eight-day losing streak for the first time since 2018. If the Dow falls again today, it will be the first nine-day losing streak since 1978. The S&P 500 has been relatively flat since its record high close two weeks ago, but it's still up 28% this year, and its charts suggest further growth. The market has seen 11 consecutive days with more declining stocks than advancing ones in the S&P 500, the longest stretch ever.

Goldman Sachs reports that the market cap of U.S. companies trading at over 10 times adjusted profits (EBITDA) is now higher than before the market correction. However, mega-cap tech stocks like Google are trading at just 22 times forward earnings, which is considered reasonable. What does this all mean? Is the market broken? Is it in a tech or AI bubble? There's definitely exuberance, especially post-election, and a pullback is expected. For long-term investors (beyond a couple of years), would you rotate out of the S&P 500? The author believes in maintaining exposure to the traditional S&P 500, acknowledging the potential for volatility but also the potential for higher returns in the long run. The U.S. is currently the envy of the world for its tech performance, with the S&P 500 representing over 50% of global stock market cap. Although some advocate for rebalancing to international stocks, the author remains optimistic about the U.S. market

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