Germany's stock market has significantly outperformed its European counterparts this year, mirroring the performance of U.S. equities. The DAX 30, the main German market index, has surged approximately 19% year-to-date, while the European benchmark, the Stoxx 600, has only increased by 5%. This strong performance aligns closely with the gains observed in the U.S. S&P 500, which has risen around 23% year-to-date.
Analysts attribute these gains to several factors, including low initial expectations, exposure to the U.S. economy, and the upcoming snap election. Sabrina Reeh, senior portfolio manager at DWS, highlighted that valuations were relatively low at the beginning of the year and sentiment towards German equities was subdued. However, earnings performance ultimately exceeded expectations. A key driver of the German market's success has been SAP, whose shares have soared nearly 59% this year. Maximilian Uleer, head of European equity and cross-asset strategy at Deutsche Bank, stated that SAP's performance has contributed approximately 8% to the year-to-date gains of the German market. In late October, SAP shares reached an all-time high after the company revised its full-year targets upward and reported robust figures for its cloud business. CEO Christian Klein expressed confidence in the company's outlook, emphasizing their progress in Business AI. Since then, the stock has continued its upward trajectory. The strong performance of German equities is also linked to their exposure to the U.S. market. Uleer pointed out that DAX companies generate a higher proportion of their revenue in the U.S. than in Germany. While concerns about potential tariffs exist, a substantial portion of this revenue is generated locally and is likely to be unaffected by tariffs. Although the collapse of the German government in November came as a surprise, analysts acknowledge that this development could potentially benefit equities
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