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Why stock-market investors might soon find ‘bad news’ is no longer ‘good news’

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Similar “rate-cut-rallies” were short-lived in both 2001 and 2007, one UBS strategist says.

Investors treating bad news like good news—and vice versa—is the narrative shorthand of the moment when it comes to explaining daily stock-market moves, but the looming second-quarter U.S. earnings reporting season could soon change the equation, one analyst warned Tuesday.

Echoes of 2001 and 2007 The counter-intuitive dynamic, which has investors expressing disappointment over strong economic data and joy over weak numbers, has exasperated some market observers, but it’s hardly a new phenomenon, noted François Trahan, a strategist at UBS, in a note to clients. Earnings in the spotlight That puts the second quarter earnings reporting season, which gets under way early next week with results from some banking heavyweights, in the spotlight. Trahan noted that unlike the 1990s, the so-called “Fed put” was of little use in 2001 and 2007 when S&P 500 index earnings growth fell to 0%.

Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to see an earnings decline of 2.6% in the second quarter, according to FactSet.

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