This translation has been automatically generated and has not been verified for accuracy.World shares held at 2-1/2-month lows on Thursday and Wall Street was set for a firmer open as investors bet the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks would respond strongly to recession warnings emanating from bond markets.
The latest inversion has since reversed, albeit marginally, and yields on 30-year Treasuries rose off the record 1.965 per cent low hit in Asian trading. But they are still down 60 basis points in just 12 sessions. MSCI’s world equity index was down 0.2 per cent, attempting to steady after the previous day’s 2 per cent rout.
“You have a lot of forces that weigh on the global economy which doesn’t really mean it needs to be a recession. The only policy response is from central banks, hence the market is rallying,” Schaffrik added. “The Fed, now out of necessity alone, will need to adjust policy much more profoundly than they expected.”
He noted that since 1975, every curve inversion had been followed by an S&P500 rally which lasted almost two years and delivered gains of around 40 per cent on average.Global growth concerns have mounted as the Sino-U.S. trade war escalated, and what sent the curve over the brink was German data on Wednesday showing the economy had contracted in the quarter to June. That came on the heels of dire Chinese data for July.
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