Gold continues to surge after inflation shock, but Citi says it may be a winter bull market at best

Gold prices continued to surge on Thursday, following hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation, but Citigroup strategists were warning that fresh momentum for the precious metal may not last beyond winter.

“However, a stronger US$ and more aggressive Fed pricing in STIR [short-term interest rates] markets are headwinds for gold price cheer, even if the inflation impulse looks robust,” said Doshi.Gold for December delivery GCZ21, +0.84% GC00, +0.84% rose $15, or 0.8%, to $1,863.50 an ounce, headed for another close not seen in months. On Wednesday, gold surged $17.50, or 1%, to settle at $1,848.30 an ounce on Comex, for its highest settlement since mid-June, according to FactSet data.

“Concerns about more persistent inflation or even the potential for stagflation is buttressing inflation hedge demand for TIPS, gold, and crypto, which could continue thematically in the short-term as November CPI should keep showing underlying strength,” said Doshi and the team. Citi lifted its 0 to 3 month gold point-price target by 11% to $1,900 an ounce and its fourth-quarter forecast to $1,800 an ounce from $1,700. But while Doshi said they have priced in a “fat-tail risk” for the commodity to post fresh nominal highs above $2,100 an ounce next year, their base case is bearish for the second half of 2022 through 2023. They expect the Fed will signal a quicker pace of taper at the December FOMC.

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