Year-to-date in 2022 the main global equity benchmark, the MCSI World, has dropped more than 8%, largely a consequence of rising interest rates, stubbornly high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. However, the traditional safe haven of the bond market has been hit almost as hard, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index similarly down more than 6%.
However, what is highly unusual about this market is that the widely anticipated economic slowdown in the US and Europe is being accompanied by inflation running the highest it has been in four decades, a dynamic that is hurting bonds and equities alike. The war in Ukraine is exacerbating what would have been an extremely challenging year for investing regardless. Defence spending and soaring commodity prices are worsening inflation while depressing aggregate demand.
SA markets have thus far been sheltered from the worst. Thanks to soaring commodity prices the JSE is broadly flat thus far in 2022, an extraordinary result that puts the South African index solidly ahead of all major developed world markets. South African bonds too have been fairly resilient, only around 20bps weaker this year, with the domestic 10-year trading at around 10%. The rand, meanwhile, continues to be extraordinarily strong. At around R14.
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