As the inflation hurricane lashes global equity markets, investors can get some relief from expected record dividends as they wait for the storm to pass.
Financial markets now expect the cash rate to peak above 4 per cent next year as the Reserve Bank of Australia battles inflation. Some term deposits pay 4 per cent over three years and the 10-year Australian government bond yields 4.1 per cent. “The big dividends from mining and energy companies are unlikely to persist beyond this financial year,” Price says. “Resource dividends will head lower in the next few years as commodity prices come off, albeit from very high levels.”
Resource company dividends rely on commodity prices that are volatile and hard to predict. If aggressive rate rises spark a global recession, commodity demand will fall. Yield investors in the resource sector could be caught in the crossfire.Bank dividends also have challenges. In the short run, rising interest rates are good for bank earnings and dividends due to an expanding net interest margin . But rising competition from non-bank lenders will crimp some of this extra margin.
The Plato Australian Shares Income Fund retains an overweight position in resource stocks for their dividend and capital-growth prospects. Ultimately, inflation will have the biggest say on dividend yield. A 7 per cent inflation rate by year’s end would devour the real return from most dividend yields.
“We haven’t had a true economic cycle since 2007 because central banks kept kicking the can down the road with low interest rates,” Warnes says. Warnes adds: “If you can get 6-7 per cent yield after franking and keep your capital intact, you’ll be doing well. Our sharemarket could be down for the next two years as central banks fight inflation. Nobody should expect a ‘V-shaped’ recovery like last time.”
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