“Cross-currents galore, all day,” said Alon Rosin, Oppenheimer & Co.’s head of institutional equity derivatives. “Positioning and sentiment is the main driver.”
“The upward repricing of bond yields was a constraint for the valuations of the long duration part of the market, but that could temporarily ease,” the strategists wrote in a note Monday. “Many growth groups’ valuation metrics have moderated.” “The rates market has said loudly and clearly, it thinks the Fed is going to be more aggressive — but as a result of that more aggressive prediction, it will be successful sooner,” said Mike Zigmont, director of trading and research at Harvest Volatility management.
A lot of bad news has been priced into equities. As of Friday, the S&P 500 reflected a 72% probability of an economic recession, compared with odds of 28% showing in Treasuries, according to a model by JPMorgan. “Markets higher led by growth on a CPI number that was much higher than expected,” said DeBusschere. “That equals pain trade.”
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