“From a risk/reward perspective, it’s a more attractive environment since there are real strategic rationales you can underwrite as an arb,” one executive at a merger arb fund said.
But with Twitter’s board hiring elite law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz and vowing to pursue legal action to force Musk to complete the deal, some merger arb funds are likely to wager on the outcome of the standoff. While Musk’s intentions have been the key variable in the Twitter deal, it is fear over how competition regulators in the United States will treat Microsoft Corp.’s US$75-billion acquisition of video games group Activision Blizzard Inc. that has created uncertainty over whether it will happen and an opening for merger arb funds.
A screen displays the ticker symbol and logo for Intercontinental Exchange Inc. on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Some funds reckon that competition regulators could step in, while others point to the possibility that the companies could challenge any opposition from authorities just as AT&T Inc. successfully did in 2019 when it defeated the Department of Justice’s bid to block its US$80-billion purchase of Time Warner.
As rising interest rates raise the cost for takeovers dependent on debt, two outstanding leveraged buyouts — Apollo Global Management Inc.’s US$7.1-billion purchase of car parts maker Tenneco and the US$16-billion acquisition of television ratings group Nielsen Holdings PLC by Elliott Investment Management LP and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. — each have had spreads beyond 10 per cent.
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