Stocks wavered in a choppy session as traders braced for earnings from technology bellwethers amid the threats of a hawkish Federal Reserve, scorching inflation and a looming economic recession.
This week will be a “make-or-break” period for investors’ confidence in the power of Corporate America, said DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas. The economy is already feeling the pinch from repeated rate increases -- with the Fed expected to deliver another jumbo hike Wednesday -- and traders will get more clues on how much of that slowdown is reflected in earnings.
“For the recent rally to continue, markets need to feel that monetary policy and corporate earnings power are incrementally more predictable than six weeks ago,” Colas wrote in a note to clients. “Our bias is to lighten up here, but even long-term investors should understand that this week is critical to market psychology.”Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin sees revenues under pressure of a stronger dollar, while Bank of America Corp.
A hallmark of recession is a drop in investment, often driven by a slowdown in inventory building or outright destocking. Inventories and durable goods orders -- due Wednesday -- will help clarify whether a recession is at hand, according to Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist for Bloomberg Economics. She estimates that both have weighed on second-quarter gross domestic product. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- PCE deflator -- comes out Friday.
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