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The price action in both gold and silver has been relatively quiet this week as the market tries to determine how aggressive the U.S. central bank will be after the summer. After some back and forth, a 75-basis point hike is all but guaranteed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 26% chance of a 100-basis point move.
"The Fed must walk a fine line as any validation of that will undermine its efforts to tighten and get a grip on inflation. Attention will be on its guidance over the coming months and how hawkish it will continue to be," he said in the note. "If Chair Powell signals today that policymakers are sticking with their"pedal to the metal" approach in quelling multi-decade high inflation, readying even more jumbo-sized hikes in the pipeline, that might send the U.S. dollar into another rampage across the F.X. universe, while shoving spot gold into the sub-$1700 domain. That would also potentially result in more carnage for risk assets," he said.
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