The Covid-19 shutdown resulted in unprecedented forced consumer experiments, which boosted the fortunes of some businesses and destroyed others. Long-duration technology businesses were among the beneficiaries.
While some companies received a cyclical boost as opposed to a structural one, we don’t believe this is true for all businesses, and thus this synchronised selling is presenting incredibly attractive stock-picking opportunities. Things have changed as interest rates have risen globally and the sentiment towards loss-making companies has soured after a period of extreme euphoria. As is often the case in financial markets, the pendulum has swung , but in an indiscriminate way that provides the stock picker with an opportunity.While there are some similarities to the dot-com crash of 2000, there are material differences. Notably, the proliferation of technology now is exponentially higher.
When trying to understand if a long-duration growth business is structurally stronger now than pre-Covid, it is important to identify the problem the business is trying to solve. We ask ourselves if this problem has sustainable consumer demand and if it can be solved in an economically profitable way. If the answer to both questions is yes, we then determine if the price is reasonable or cheap relative to its intrinsic value.
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