By quick way of review.
In this context, the current rally in stocks is 9 weeks old and has seen the S&P 500 rally some 17%. This begs the question… if this is indeed a bear market rally… when will it end? Put another way, when does the next leg down begin? Historically, the 40-week moving average has been a line of GREAT significance during bear markets. During the Tech Crash, the S&P 500 was never able to break above this and stay there.A similar dynamic played out during the Housing Crash. Here again, the S&P 500 was unable to reclaim the 200-DMA/40-WMA.The S&P 500 is just about to test its 200-DMA/40-WMA. If history is any guide, it won’t be able to reclaim this line and stocks will begin their next leg down in the next few weeks.
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