Canada’s real estate market is cooling. Here’s what to expect this fall

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The average home price is still above pre-pandemic levels, but increasing mortgage rates and inflationary pressures are weighing on the market

When pandemic lockdowns began in March 2020, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said the average home price in the area – one of Canada’s hottest – sat at $902,680. Last month, it was $1,074,754, a one per cent hike from July 2021, but a six per cent drop from June 2022.

“Home prices continue to fall and have further to go before they find a bottom,” said Randall Bartlett, Helene Begin and Marc Desormeaux, in a report released July 11. “There’s lots of bargain hunters out there who are throwing out offers but if they don’t have to sell, a lot of sellers are saying, ‘no, sorry, not taking it.”

The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate by one percentage point to 2.5 per cent in July in the largest hike the country has seen in 24 years. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said the composite benchmark price for the region – often Canada’s hottest – sat at more than $1.2-million in July, a roughly 10 per cent increase from July 2021 and a two per cent drop from June 2022.

For example, she said Alberta has not seen the slowdown many other Canadian markets have because its energy sector is much stronger than it was in the past.

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